Scenarios for Dg/res Development on Case Study, Country and European Level

The recently observed increase in distributed generation based on renewable energy sources (DG/RES) in the European electricity system is most likely to continue or even increase its growth rate in the future. Distributed Generation (DG) as one core focus of this paper is mainly meant to be connected to distribution grid areas. Thus, scenarios for DG/RES development on distribution level are derived for a time horizon set between 2009 and 2030. Distribution areas in which the future development of additional DG/RES is analysed are located in the Netherlands, Germany and Spain, These areas have different characteristics in terms of already existing load and the type of generation installed whereas the penetration levels evaluated can vary significantly. A further increase of partly intermittent and non-intermittent generation capacities is most likely to drive distribution grids to its limits resulting in increased balancing and backup power upgrades as well as grid reinforcements (see e.g. [1]). As capacity increases in Germany, Spain and the Netherlands are observed the question has to be discussed, which technical solutions result in which cost bandwidths of a large-scale DG/RES grid integration. Correspondingly, cost development bandwidths of alternative grid integration strategies are analysed. As a consequence, explicit mechanisms e.g. in grid regulation policies or alternative business modelling approaches have to be introduced in order to enable calculated grid integration cost savings which lie between 150 € per metering point (mp) (both for generation and demand) and 85 €/mp. Only then, expected DG/RES development will not imply further economic disincentives regarding distribution grid integration.